Volume 6, No. 1, April 2007
Expected P/E, Residual P/E, and Stock Return Reversal: Time-Varying Fundamentals or Investor Overreaction?


Ying Huang
School of Business, Manhattan College, U.S.A.


Chia-Hui Tsai
First Taisec Capital Management, Taiwan


Carl R. Chen*
Department of Economics and Finance, University of Dayton, U.S.A.


Abstract


We decompose P/E ratios into a fundamental component and a residual component that cannot be explained by the firm or economic fundamentals. Purging the fundamental component from observed P/E ratios, we find that portfolios based on residual P/E ratios exhibit performance reversal only in overbid glamour stocks; hence over-optimism is more prevalent than over-pessimism.


Key words : P/E ratios; overreaction; market efficiency
JEL classification : G30

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