International Journal of Business and Economics Volume 3, No. 1 April​, 2004

A Quasi-Bayesian Analysis of Structural Breaks: China's Output and Productivity Series

Xiao-Ming Li

Department of Commerce, Massey University-Albany, New Zealand

Abstract

A quasi-Bayesian model selection approach is employed to detect the number and dates of structural changes in China's GDP and labour productivity data. It is shown that the predictive likelihood information criterion is valid only among models with well-behaved residuals.

Keywords：structural change, predictive likelihood, GDP, labour productivity, China.

JEL Classifications：C22, E30.

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