International Journal of Business and Economics Volume 8, No. 3 December, 2009

Modeling Firm Population Dynamics:  An Application to the Turkish Manufacturing Industry for the 1950–2000 Period

Ugur Soytas

Department of Business Administration, Middle East Technical University, Turkey

Abstract

This paper examines the population dynamics of Turkish manufacturing firms using annual data on the aggregate industry over the period 1950-2000. Among the four models considered, the density dependence model seems to provide the best fit. This model is extended for further examination. One interesting finding is that business cycles do not play a role in determining changes in firm numbers in the industry. The number of firms is negatively influenced by average number of employees; however, it does not appear to depend on average payments to employees. Energy intensity also does not seem to influence the population size dynamics.

Keywords：industry population dynamics, time series, manufacturing.

JEL Classifications：L1, L6.

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